After recent rate cuts and shifting expectations around central bank policy, investors are watching fresh data from the U.S. and Europe for signs of how much easing lies ahead. Global economic growth concerns, inflation trajectories and geopolitical undercurrents continue to influence sentiment.

KEY INDICATORS

• Remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that asset valuations are elevated prompted caution in the markets
• Recent forecast from the OECD warns that the full impact of U.S. tariffs may still lie ahead.
• Inflation trends still watched closely, particularly U.S. inflation data and European confidence indices.
• Australian prime minister Albanese faces diplomatic pressure ahead of a meeting with Trump, with questions over defence (AUKUS) and foreign policy incentives.

MARKET MOVERS

USD/JPY

• Primary trend: Overall bullish over the longer term. A break above 148.00 – 148.10 would signal upside continuation.
• Support level: 147.50 – 147.75, followed by 147.20 – 147.30 and further down to 146.80.
• Resistance level: 148.50 – 149.00, followed by 149.50.
• Risk management: Use tight stop losses just below support zones to control risk while observing macro news (U.S. data, Fed speak, BoJ cues) for sudden shifts in direction.

Crude Oil WTI

• Primary trend: A bullish break above 63.80 – 64.00 could trigger further upside momentum.
• Support: 63.20 – 63.40, followed by 62.80 – 63.00 and 62.30 – 62.60
• Resistance: 63.80 – 64.00, followed by 64.50 – 65.20 and 66.00
• Range trading: Buy near support and sell near resistance if price consolidates between 63.45 – 63.84

NEWS HEADLINES

Currencies

• US dollar gains strength as markets price in “elevated” asset valuations while waiting for the U.S. core PCE inflation data.
• Euro under pressure from weak German IFO.
• Yen weakened as the Bank of Japan kept to its current policy stance.
• Inflation spiked 3% in Australia, delaying rate cuts well into 2026 and boosting volatility in the Australian dollar

Commodities

• Oil edges higher after a drop in U.S. stockpiles and reports of stalled energy deals in Iraqi Kurdistan.
• Gold retreats as investors took profits, though safe-haven demand remains strong given slower global growth.

Equities

• Wall Street dipped overnight after Powell’s comments spurred profit-taking.
• Nikkei slides on slow manufacturing numbers, while exporters are also pressured by yen weakness.

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