Global markets face renewed uncertainty as weak US non-farm payrolls and rising unemployment stoke recession fears, prompting calls for Fed rate cuts while Trump finalises candidates for Fed Chair. Trade tensions intensified with new Russia sanctions, tariff exemptions on metals, and stricter terms for Japan, while OPEC+ raised output.

KEY INDICATORS

US labour market

August non-farm payrolls grew far below expectations, while June data was revised into negative territory for the first time since 2020.

The unemployment rate rose to a four-year high.

White House adviser Hassett predicted upward revisions but questioned the reliability of the current data.

Senate leader Schumer cited weak jobs data to push for overturning Trump’s tariffs.

Trump, Labour Secretary Dremer, and Treasury Secretary Bessent all criticised the Fed for delaying rate cuts.

Bessent warned that revised 2024 employment figures may reduce jobs by 800,000.

Commodities and dollar

Dollar Index fell 0.54% to 97.74, erasing most of last week’s gains.

US Treasury yields declined: 10-year at 4.08%, 2-year at 3.52%.

Spot gold closed at $3,586/oz, up 1.12% for a third week; silver rose 0.82% to $40.97/oz.

Crude prices dropped, with WTI down 2.61% to $61.69/barrel and Brent down 1.81% to $65.66/barrel.

Equities performance

US stocks ended lower: Dow -0.48%, S&P 500 -0.32%, Nasdaq -0.03%.

Broadcom +9.41%, Tesla +3.64%; Chinese tech: Baidu +4%, Alibaba +3.57%.

European equities fell: DAX 40 -0.73%, FTSE 100 -0.09%, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.53%.

MARKET MOVERS

EUR/USD

• Primary trend: Bullish, though short-term momentum is softening as RSI drifts lower.
• Support level: 1.1675 (secondary: 1.1700)
• Resistance zone: 1.1755 (secondary: 1.1780)
• Long strategy: Buy on dips near 1.1675 support, target 1.1755 initially, extend towards 1.1780, stop-loss below 1.1675.
• Short strategy: Consider tactical shorts on rallies into 1.1755–1.1780 resistance, target 1.1700 initially, extend back to 1.1675 if momentum stalls.
• Range trade: Buy near support and sell near resistance if price consolidates between 1.1675–1.1780.
• Risk management: Keep stops tight within the prevailing bullish bias.

GBP/JPY

• Primary trend: Bullish, though overbought conditions suggest a short-term pullback may unfold.
• Support level: 199.05 (secondary: 199.50)
• Resistance zone: 200.45 (secondary: 200.70)
• Long strategy: Buy on dips near 199.05 support, target 200.45 initially, extend towards 200.70, stop-loss below 199.05.
• Short strategy: Consider tactical shorts on rallies into 200.45–200.70 resistance, target 199.50 initially, extend back to 199.05 if momentum stalls.
• Range trade: Buy near support and sell near resistance if price consolidates between 199.05–200.70.
• Risk management: Keep stops tight given the overbought backdrop.

DAX 40 (Germany)

• Primary trend: Bearish, though recent RSI strength points to a short-term bounce.
• Support level: 23,500 (secondary: 23,545)
• Resistance zone: 23,805 (secondary: 23,950–24,000)
• Long strategy: Consider tactical longs only if price holds above 23,805, target 23,950 initially, extend towards 24,000, stop-loss below 23,805.
• Short strategy: Sell into rallies near 23,805 resistance, target 23,545 initially, extend back to 23,500 if momentum stalls, stop-loss above 23,805.
• Range trade: Sell near resistance and cover near support if price consolidates between 23,500–23,805.
• Risk management: Keep stops tight given the prevailing bearish backdrop.

NEWS HEADLINES

Federal Reserve & policy – leadership race intensifies

Trump confirmed Fed Chair finalists as Hassett, Walsh, and Waller, while Treasury Secretary Bessent withdrew.

Senate Republicans are planning rule changes to fast-track Fed governor confirmations.

US trade & sanctions – tariff adjustments and Russia measures

Trump prepared a second wave of sanctions against Russia.

The US exempted gold, tungsten, and uranium from global tariffs, effective Monday.

Trump signed an executive order to adjust tariffs under future trade agreements, including potential zero duties on scarce goods, agricultural products, aircraft parts, and pharmaceutical inputs.

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Cher Client,

Veuillez noter que les dividendes des produits suivants seront ajustés en conséquence. Les dividendes des indices seront exécutés séparément via un relevé de solde directement sur votre compte de trading, et le commentaire sera au format suivant : “Div & Nom du produit & Volume net”.

Veuillez consulter le tableau ci-dessous pour plus de détails :

Les données ci-dessus sont fournies à titre de référence uniquement, veuillez consulter le logiciel MT4/MT5 pour des informations précises.

Pour toute information complémentaire, n’hésitez pas à contacter info@vtmarkets.com.

The Chinese yuan gained ground on Friday as improved sentiment in domestic markets, and a softer US dollar offered support. With traders balancing expectations around US jobs data and monitoring signals from Beijing, the currency remains at the centre of attention in global forex markets.

Dollar weakness lifts yuan momentum

The Chinese yuan posted modest gains on Friday in both onshore and offshore trading, supported by a rebound in domestic equities and a softer US dollar.

According to market observers, fading regulatory concerns helped lift Chinese stocks, which in turn created positive momentum for regional assets.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) also contributed to the yuan’s strength by setting the daily reference rate at 7.1064 – well above market forecasts. The offshore yuan (USD/CNH) mirrored this move, trading near 7.1334 by midday in Asia.

Meanwhile, the broader dollar weakened ahead of the highly anticipated US non-farm payrolls (NFP) release later in the day, a report that could heavily influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Technical analysis

The USD/CNH pair is currently trading around 7.13, slipping 0.06% and extending the gradual decline that began after April’s peak near 7.43.

The currency pair remains close to the 7.11 support area, maintaining a steady downtrend. Short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) are aligned bearishly, pointing to sustained selling pressure. In addition, the MACD remains negative, underlining continued downside momentum.

Picture: USDCNH-ECN trades at 7.1316, edging down 0.06% from its recent level, with support near 7.11 as seen on the VT Markets app.

A clear break below 7.11 could expose the next support level around 7.05. On the upside, initial resistance is located at 7.20, followed by 7.25 – levels that would need to be reclaimed for any shift back towards bullish sentiment.

For now, the technical setup stays bearish, with traders remaining alert to policy signals from Beijing as well as upcoming US economic data that may influence capital flows and yuan stability.

Cautious outlook

Should the NFP report show weaker-than-expected job growth, the US dollar may come under additional pressure, opening the door for USD/CNH to test the 7.10 area.

Conversely, a strong or hawkish outcome from the US labour data could stall further yuan appreciation, particularly against a backdrop of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty in China.

In this case, the currency pair may consolidate within its current range as investors reassess both Federal Reserve policy direction and China’s domestic economic resilience.

Market participants will also be watching closely for further PBoC guidance, as the central bank’s daily fixings remain a critical driver of sentiment.

Combined with signals from Chinese authorities on growth measures and fiscal support, these factors will likely determine whether the yuan can sustain its current strength or face renewed selling pressure in the weeks ahead.

Click here to open account and start trading.

Cher Client,

Veuillez noter que les dividendes des produits suivants seront ajustés en conséquence. Les dividendes des indices seront exécutés séparément via un relevé de solde directement sur votre compte de trading, et le commentaire sera au format suivant : “Div & Nom du produit & Volume net”.

Veuillez consulter le tableau ci-dessous pour plus de détails :

Les données ci-dessus sont fournies à titre de référence uniquement, veuillez consulter le logiciel MT4/MT5 pour des informations précises.

Pour toute information complémentaire, n’hésitez pas à contacter info@vtmarkets.com.

Oil markets remain caught between supply uncertainty and demand signals, leaving traders on alert for the next move. Speculation around OPEC+ production policy, upcoming US stockpile data, and shifting global consumption trends are all shaping sentiment, keeping volatility alive and market direction unclear.

Traders on edge ahead of OPEC+ talks

Oil prices moved lower in Thursday’s early trading session as market participants positioned cautiously before the upcoming OPEC+ policy meeting.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 1.0% to $63.32 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 0.9% to $66.96, wiping out the previous day’s gains.

The pullback followed a Reuters report indicating that the group could weigh further production increases. Even without an official decision, the possibility of more barrels hitting the market unsettled traders.

Uncertainty remains high, particularly with the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) due to release its weekly stockpile data later today. Investors are keen to see whether demand from the world’s top oil consumer can offset the renewed supply-side risk.

Technical analysis

Crude oil (CL-OIL) is trading at $63.26, down 0.75% on the session, and consolidating after a volatile year. In April 2025, prices dipped as low as $55.11 before surging to $77.90 in July.

Since then, the market has traded in a broad range, with the 30-day moving average flattening and shorter-term averages (5 and 10) struggling to maintain upward momentum – signalling hesitation.

Picture: CL-OIL-ECN trades at 63.263, down 0.75% from its recent level as shown on the VT Markets app.

The MACD shows a mild bullish crossover but remains close to neutral, pointing to limited strength. Key support is placed at $60, with a deeper cushion at $55, while resistance levels stand at $67 and $72.

A sustained breakout above $67 could unlock fresh bullish momentum, whereas a decline below $60 would increase the risk of revisiting the yearly low.

In the short run, prices are expected to remain range-bound, with traders monitoring OPEC+ supply decisions, US inventory data, and broader demand recovery trends.

Cautious forecast

Unless OPEC+ steps in to temper supply expectations, crude oil may remain under pressure as the week draws to a close.

A bearish EIA report showing another surprise build in US stockpiles could pull WTI closer to the $60 handle, amplifying downside risks.

On the other hand, a bullish or dovish report indicating stronger demand could provide a temporary rebound – but traders may treat any recovery with caution given the looming policy risks.

Beyond the immediate data releases, sentiment will continue to hinge on OPEC+ strategy in Vienna, as well as global demand signals from key importers such as China and India.

Currency fluctuations, geopolitical headlines, and broader risk sentiment in financial markets could also influence price direction. For now, the oil market appears locked in a fragile balance, vulnerable to both policy shifts and macroeconomic surprises.

Click here to open account and start trading.

Cher Client,

Veuillez noter que les dividendes des produits suivants seront ajustés en conséquence. Les dividendes des indices seront exécutés séparément via un relevé de solde directement sur votre compte de trading, et le commentaire sera au format suivant : “Div & Nom du produit & Volume net”.

Veuillez consulter le tableau ci-dessous pour plus de détails :

Les données ci-dessus sont fournies à titre de référence uniquement, veuillez consulter le logiciel MT4/MT5 pour des informations précises.

Pour toute information complémentaire, n’hésitez pas à contacter info@vtmarkets.com.

What if a single economic release could trigger sharp market moves in just minutes? This Friday, 5 September 2025, the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will do exactly that. Known for shaking markets, the NFP is one of the most closely watched indicators in the world – and a key driver of the US dollar, stocks, bonds, and commodities such as gold and oil.

Last month’s release showed that only 73,000 jobs were added, far below expectations. That shortfall weakened the dollar and fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sooner than markets previously thought. With August’s numbers about to land, traders are once again bracing for volatility.

So, what should you look for this time – and how can you prepare?

Why the NFP matters for traders

The Non-Farm Payrolls report measures how many jobs were created in the US economy during the previous month, excluding agricultural work, the military, and certain government roles.

Think of it as a monthly health check on the world’s largest economy. Strong job growth suggests businesses are hiring, consumers are spending, and momentum is strong – conditions that can keep interest rates higher for longer. Weak numbers signal slowing activity, raising the chances of rate cuts.

Markets often respond within seconds of the release. A strong upside surprise can boost the dollar and push bond yields higher. A weak print can have the opposite effect, sparking rallies in gold or even stocks if traders expect easier monetary policy ahead.

Numbers that really move markets

While the headline job creation figure grabs attention, seasoned traders know that several other components can be just as important. Here are the main ones to watch this Friday:

Job gains

Economists expect between 75,000 and 78,000 new positions. This would confirm the slowdown seen in July and keep the labour market well below early-year levels. If hiring surprises to the upside – say, 120,000 or more – it could give the US dollar fresh strength. A print below 50,000, however, might trigger renewed concern about the economy.

Unemployment rate

Forecast to remain steady at 4.2%. Even small changes matter because they show whether job seekers are finding work. A rise to 4.3% would suggest slack is building, while a dip would show resilience.

Wage growth

Average hourly earnings are expected to climb by 0.3% month on month, with annual growth near 3.9%. Faster wage growth means households have more money to spend, but it also raises inflation risks. That could make the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting rates too quickly.

Revisions to past data

In recent months, previous figures have been sharply revised downwards. For instance, July’s report cut earlier estimates for May and June by a combined 258,000 jobs. These revisions can shift market perception instantly – sometimes more than the new numbers themselves.

Labour force participation

July’s figure stood at 62.2%, broadly stable over the past year. Even slight movements here can change how the unemployment rate is interpreted. If participation falls, a steady unemployment rate might mask underlying weakness.

How markets may react

Different markets respond in different ways, and the reactions are often immediate:

• US dollar (USD): Strong jobs data usually lifts the dollar; weak numbers weigh on it.
• Bonds: Yields rise on strong hiring, fall on weak reports.
• Shares: Stocks cheer modest weakness (rate-cut hopes) but drop if slowdown looks severe.
• Gold: Gains on weak jobs data and a softer dollar; falls on strength.
• Oil: Stronger hiring supports demand outlook; weaker data caps prices.

For example, in April 2025, a strong NFP print above 200,000 boosted the dollar and pushed gold down more than 2% in one day. In July, weak numbers triggered the opposite move – gold rallied while the dollar fell.

How to prepare for NFP day

For traders, the challenge with NFP is not just understanding the numbers but also reacting quickly. Market moves are often sharp yet short-lived, which means preparation is essential.

Here are some practical steps:

1. Stay informed: Keep an eye on VT Markets’ Economic Calendar for real-time updates. This ensures you don’t miss the release time or forecasts.

2. Use fast platforms: Execution speed can make all the difference during NFP volatility. VT Markets’ platforms are designed to help you react instantly.

3. Diversify your approach: The NFP doesn’t just affect currencies. With VT Markets, you can access forex, indices, commodities, and more – all of which can move when the data is released.

4. Manage your risk: Tools like stop-loss and take-profit orders allow you to set boundaries in advance. That way, you can protect your account from unexpected swings while keeping the chance to capture opportunities.

Imagine you are trading the EUR/USD. If the NFP comes in stronger than expected, the US dollar could rise sharply, pushing EUR/USD lower. Without a stop-loss, a sudden drop could erode your position quickly. With a stop-loss in place, you can limit your downside while leaving room to benefit if the report surprises the other way.

Turning volatility into opportunity

The US Non-Farm Payrolls report is more than a routine piece of data – it is a monthly catalyst that can set the tone for global markets. With forecasts pointing to another modest increase in jobs, expectations are already leaning towards a softer labour market. That means any surprise, whether stronger or weaker, could send ripples across currencies, bonds, shares, and commodities.

For traders, the opportunity lies in preparation. By knowing which numbers matter most, anticipating potential market reactions, and having the right tools at your fingertips, you can turn this event into a chance to capture new opportunities – or protect your positions.

Volatility brings both risks and rewards. This Friday, 5 September, stay ready with VT Markets and make sure you don’t miss the moves that NFP can bring.

Cher client,

Dans le cadre de notre engagement à fournir le service le plus fiable à nos clients, une maintenance aura lieu ce week-end.

Détails d’entretien :

Veuillez noter que les aspects suivants pourraient être affectés lors de la maintenance :
1. La cotation des prix et la gestion des échanges seront temporairement désactivées pendant la maintenance. Vous ne pourrez pas ouvrir de nouvelles positions, clôturer des positions ouvertes ou apporter des ajustements aux transactions.
2. Il peut y avoir un écart entre le prix d’origine et le prix après la maintenance. Les écarts entre les ordres en attente, le Stop Loss et le Take Profit seront comblés au prix du marché une fois la maintenance terminée. Il est suggéré de gérer correctement le compte.
3. Pendant la période de maintenance, l’application VT Markets ne sera pas disponible. Il est recommandé d’éviter de l’utiliser pendant la maintenance.
4. Pendant les heures de maintenance, le portail client sera indisponible, y compris la gestion des transactions, le dépôt/retrait et toutes les autres fonctions seront limitées.

Les données ci-dessus sont uniquement à titre de référence. Veuillez vous référer au logiciel MT4/MT5 pour connaître l’achèvement de la maintenance spécifique et l’heure d’ouverture de la négociation.

Merci de votre patience et de votre compréhension face à cette initiative importante.

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Political and economic risks are shaping sentiment across global markets. US tariffs and Fed scrutiny fuel uncertainty, UK gilts rally as sterling weakens, while Japan and Turkey grapple with political instability. In Argentina, authorities step in to support the FX market amid pressure on bonds and the peso.

KEY INDICATORS

Dollar strength driven by US yields

DXY +0.66% to 98.327, marking its first gain in six sessions.

10-year Treasury yield 4.263%, 2-year yield 3.652%, putting pressure on non-US currencies.

Commodities rally on safe-haven demand and supply concerns

Gold +1.64% to USD 3,533.43/oz, approaching USD 3,540 intraday.

Silver +0.37% to USD 40.89/oz.

WTI +1.46% to USD 65.37/bbl; Brent +1.38% to USD 69/bbl.

Gains driven by US sanctions on Iranian exports and OPEC+ production cuts.

Equities retreat amid tech weakness and risk sentiment

US stocks: Dow -0.55%, S&P 500 -0.69%, Nasdaq -0.82%; Nvidia -2%, Apple -1%.

Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index +0.52%; Li Auto +4.5%, NIO +3%, Bilibili -3.6%.

European equities: DAX -2.29%, FTSE 100 -0.87%, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.42%, reflecting cautious global risk sentiment.

MARKET MOVERS

XAU/USD

• Primary trend: Bullish, with pullbacks likely to find support before buyers return.
• Support level: 3,485 (secondary: 3,455)
• Resistance zone: 3,589 (secondary breakout target: 3,640)
• Long strategy: Enter longs near 3,485 support, target 3,589 initially, extend towards 3,640, stop-loss below 3,455.
• Short strategy: Consider tactical shorts on rallies into 3,589–3,640 resistance, target 3,520 initially, extend back to 3,485 if momentum stalls.
• Range trade: Buy dips near support and sell rallies near resistance if price consolidates between 3,485–3,589.
• Risk management: Keep stops tight given the prevailing bullish trend.

EUR/USD

• Primary trend: Bearish, with signs of a top forming.
• Support level: 1.1595 (secondary: 1.1580)
• Resistance zone: 1.1695 (secondary breakout target: 1.1720)
• Long strategy: Consider tactical longs only if price holds above 1.1595 and breaks above 1.1720 with momentum; target 1.1770, stop-loss below 1.1690.
• Short strategy: Sell into rallies near 1.1695 resistance; target 1.1595 initially, extend back to 1.1580 if momentum stalls; stops above 1.1720.
• Range trade: Buy near support and sell near resistance if price consolidates between 1.1580–1.1695.
• Risk management: Keep stops tight given the prevailing bearish trend.

GBP/JPY

• Primary trend: Supported in the short term, but stalling bullish momentum suggests a potential top may be forming.
• Support level: 197.80 (secondary: 198.05)
• Resistance zone: 199.25 (secondary breakout target: 200.00)
• Long strategy: Consider tactical longs only if price breaks and holds above resistance with strong follow-through; target 200.00, stop-loss below 199.25.
• Short strategy: Sell into rallies near 199.25 resistance; target 198.05 initially, extend back to 197.80 if momentum stalls; stops above 200.00.
• Range trade: Buy near support and sell near resistance if price consolidates between 197.80–199.25.
• Risk management: Keep stops tight given weakening bullish momentum.

NEWS HEADLINES

Global market and policy updates

Trump to hold emergency meeting on tariffs on Wednesday; Supreme Court appeal expected, with risk of tariff withdrawal and refunds if the ruling goes against him.

Federal Reserve Governor Cook under scrutiny as his declared primary residence is reportedly being let to tenants.

US regulators ease financial oversight, reducing the frequency of bank stress tests

UK 30-year gilt yield hits highest level since 1998; sterling slides on fiscal concerns.

Russia and the US to hold diplomatic consultations, Kremlin aide confirms.

Corporate and regional developments

Nvidia announces 2026 GTC conference to be held in San Jose, 16-19 March.

US judge rules Google is not required to divest Chrome or Android.

Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba apologises after LDP election loss, as party officials consider resignations.

India to launch commercial semiconductor production by end-2025.

India’s tax board proposes raising EV tax on mid-range models from 5% to 18%.

Click here to open account and start trading.

Cher Client,

Veuillez noter que les dividendes des produits suivants seront ajustés en conséquence. Les dividendes des indices seront exécutés séparément via un relevé de solde directement sur votre compte de trading, et le commentaire sera au format suivant : “Div & Nom du produit & Volume net”.

Veuillez consulter le tableau ci-dessous pour plus de détails :

Les données ci-dessus sont fournies à titre de référence uniquement, veuillez consulter le logiciel MT4/MT5 pour des informations précises.

Pour toute information complémentaire, n’hésitez pas à contacter info@vtmarkets.com.